The Bull Shalt Not Fear the Tiger and the Dragon
By Oscar S. Garcia, MBA, ATP Boeing 747/777
It is not big news that the Indian Tiger and Chinese Dragon economies are surging, aerospace sector
included. They are regarded globally as the emerging forces to watch, contend with and especially in the
Chinese Dragon’s case, somewhat fear.
The United States’ economy is usually the comparison benchmark, the economy at risk of losing its
preeminence. The aerospace, defense and specially the air transportation sectors are oftentimes at the
top of comparisons charts and the pinnacle of future “world dominance” discussions and analysis.
My opinion is: Easy Tigers…and Calm down Dragons! here comes the Americas, may we say “Bulls”?.
Apples to apples, one must measure China and India not only with the USA, but with “The Americas”, in
hemispherical terms, from Chile to Alaska. Doing so, an interesting picture emerges. The Americas is
home to close to 1 Billion people and produces around slightly over 50% of the world’s total GDP. If we
look at growth, once the Latin American and Caribbean basins are added to the North American giants
(Canada, USA, Mexico), we are talking 5-6% projected for the next 20 years on a mature and already
large industrial base.
If we speak air transportation aerospace, defense and space sectors, we approach closer to the 60%
mark in global GDP. In Layman’s’ terms; out of the roughly 2 billion passenger enplaments in the world,
a little over 1 billion did so in the Americas. Out of the slightly over 41,000 air transport aircraft in the
world, north of 22,000 are in the Americas. More than 75% of the general aviation aircraft in the planet
are in the Americas. The list goes on!
So, what do we do now? Well, let’s keep building Boeing, Cessna, Embraer, Bombardiers... make sure
the grand LATAM airline merger happens, open wide the hemisphere's skies and keep outsourcing
aerospace and defense South of Mexico, to Central America and all the way down to Chile. Like we say
in Latin culture, be careful trying to outrun a big bull! ,
Oscar S. Garcia is the Chairman of InterFlight Global Corporation; a
globally focused Miami based aerospace industry advisory and
management consulting firm